The short answer
A 2022 review found a higher risk of gallbladder or bile-duct problems with GLP-1 medicines. The overall absolute increase was much smaller than the relative-risk headline might suggest.
What was reviewed?
Researchers combined 76 randomized trials involving 103,371 adults. The search covered evidence through mid-2021, including diabetes and weight-loss studies.
Relative risk and overall absolute difference are distinct measures
Overall relative risk
1.37
Additional events per 10,000 people per year
27 (range 17–38)
Original visual based on the study.
| Group or measure | Result |
|---|---|
| Overall relative risk | 1.37 |
| Additional events per 10,000 people per year | 27 (range 17–38) |
What changed?
Across all trials, relative risk was 1.37: a 37% relative increase, not a 37% chance of developing a problem.
The estimated absolute difference was 27 additional events per 10,000 people treated for one year, with a reported range of 17–38. That overall estimate is not a personalized forecast or a weight-loss-only estimate.
The relative increase was larger in the weight-loss trials.
What limits the finding?
Most trials were not designed specifically to measure these events, which may have been incompletely reported. Individual patient data were unavailable.
The useful takeaway
Read relative and absolute risk together. This historical review cannot establish the same risk for every medicine, dose or person today.
Sources
He and colleagues, JAMA Internal Medicine, 2022. Supported by Chinese public and academic research grants.